Market Overview – Morning Express

– The Fed Week Playbook, a special report edition of our Midday Market Minute
– Do not miss our weekly Top Three Things to Watch this Week
– Flash PMIs for January, U.K. hit hard and European Services sector slumps due to Omicron.
– However, Germany remained strong beating across the board.
– U.S. Flash PMIs due at 8:45 am CT.
– Crude Oil retreats from early surge as Iran Nuclear Deal back on the table, spearheaded by Russia.
– U.S. Treasury auctions $54 billion 2-year Notes today, $55 billion 5-years tomorrow, and $53 billon of the dreaded 7-years Thursday (after Fed)
– A lot of Treasury supply hitting the market to lift yields. Risk-assets could rally hard from oversold conditions on relief from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting Wednesday, as we mapped out in our Fed Week Playbook. Last night, in one of the greatest football games of ever, the Buffalo Bills scored a go-ahead touchdown with 13 seconds left. The game was sealed, but not so fast, Patrick Mahomes was waiting to accomplish the improbable. Similarly, a post-Fed rally could get the rug pulled by the dreaded 7-year Note auction Thursday.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4390, down 84.75 on Friday and 264.75 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,426.50, down 414.50 on Friday and 1,169.25 on the week
– Tape is heavy but nearing oversold territory for near-term per our discussion in the Fed Week Playbook.
– Low formed through the first week of October across 4260-4280; we see this as a big level of support in the near-term.
– February and April highs in NQ bring two layers of strong support at 13,900 and 14,000-14,065 respectively.
– In order to create a rebound, the S&P and NQ must clear major three-star resistances at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 85.14, down 0.41 on Friday and up 1.84 on the week
– Revising our Bullish Bias to be more Neutral due to inability to close above 85.41-85.55 Friday, broad market forces and that Crude tested our buy zone at $83 once already.
– Iran Nuclear Deal is a factor weighing on prices, but they are already delivering to China. Just last week China added 4 mb of Iranian Crude to state reserves.
– UAE successfully shoots down Houthi missiles, seen as reducing potential supply disruptions
– Looking to buy against previous March highs and major three-star support at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1831.8, down 10.8 on Friday and up 15.3 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.32, down 0.396 on Friday and up 1.402 on the week
– U.S. Dollar Index up 0.5% on safe-haven bid and weak U.K./Eurozone PMIs
– Gold is seeing safe-haven bid as Treasuries are firm, but can this last?
– Silver down with commodities on risk-off and looking at likely retest of 50-day moving average at 23.20.
– Silver failed at 200-day moving average last week, comes in at 24.75 today.
– If Gold can hold ground, could be building bull-flag
– Gold is re-testing breakout support at 1829-1831, chews through opens door for… Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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