Market Overview – Morning Express
– Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, for November came in at +4.7% YoY versus +4.5% expected, highest since March 1989, and +0.5% MoM versus +0.4%.
– Two quick takes: 1, these are hot reads, but within the range of expectations. 2, November is already in the rear-view mirror, there was significant asset price deflation due to slower China and Omicron.
– Personal Spending and Income components of PCE in line with expectations, but Personal Savings is dipping to lowest since 2017.
– Durable Goods was a strong read and Initial Jobless Claims in line with expectations.
– Final December Michigan Consumer data due at 9:00 am CT along with New Home Sales.
– U.K. waiting until after Christmas to announce any fresh virus curbs. Patience comes after Scottish study showed Omicron has two-thirds less risk of hospitalization. Data from Denmark and South Africa also supportive.
– Study shows third dose of AstraZeneca’s vaccine “significantly boosted” antibodies against Omicron. However, a third dose of China’s Sinovac vaccine does not produce adequate antibodies to fight the new strain.
– China locks down Xi’an, in the western province of Shaanxi with a population of 13 million due to a local outbreak.
– Russian President Putin, in his annual press conference, barked at the west but with a softer and sometimes upbeat tone.
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E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4686, down 45.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,169.75, up 189.75
– Price action remains firm and handedly out above yesterday’s opening bell rally.
– Looking to build a floor at yesterday’s closing ranges, has done a good job overnight
– Despite strength of rebound, cannot underestimate overhead damage from multiple failures
– A close above these levels is extremely bullish and points to a melt-up into yearend.
– Brings significant major three-star resistance in the S&P at 4717.75-4723.25
– Brings significant major three-star resistance in the NQ in two waves, at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (February)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72.76, up 1.64
– On the verge of potential breakout above major three-star resistance at 72.93-73.13. This will put first upside target to 77.44-77.81 while maintaining price action above the $73 mark.
– We maintain our more Bullish Bias and expectations for $90-100 Crude in the first half of 2022.
– EIA wonky headline report with large draw in Crude, but larger build in Gasoline despite drop in Refinery Utilization.
– Our sources are showing us strong U.S. Gulf Coast physical market driving prices along with risk-on sentiment.
– Bulls are in the driver’s seat across all timeframes while maintaining action above … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1788.7, down 5.9
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.529, up 0.238
– This is the start of a very seasonally bullish time of year for Gold; if you buy December 23rd and hold through January 11th, you have made money in 13 out of the last 15 years, averaging $30.
– If we begin trending higher, do not chase, opportunity will be plentiful upon patience.
– Holding at and above our Pivot and point of balance at 1803-1804.9 for Gold and 22.80 for Silver will have a high probability of leading to higher prices.
– Break below first key support in each at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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