Market Overview – Morning Express
Market Overview – Morning Express
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5801.50, up 25.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,346.25, up 154.25
Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for inflation in August to have risen by +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Although this is up from 2.6% in July, it would mark the ninth month in a row Core PCE has been under 3.0%. Arguably, 3.0% has become a psychological guidepost for inflation’s perceived trajectory and a point within reach, or even ‘close enough’, to the Fed’s 2% target. Final Michigan Consumer data for September is due at 9:00 am CT, and updated Atlanta Fed GDPNow for Q3 is to follow at 9:30 am CT.
The overnight rally into Thursday’s opening bell for E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures failed, and reversed sharply. In fact, the volume within the first 60 minutes was the most all week. All was not negative, as that weakness for both indices traded down to Wednesday’s settlement and not only covered the gap, but price action responded tremendously and grinded higher through the session. The stage is now set for today’s data and that rare major four-star support still stands, denoted below. As today unfolds, continued price action above our Pivot and point of balance will be seen as stoking higher prices into month- and quarter-end Monday, with those levels coming in at 5801.50-5805 in the E-mini S&P and 20,324-20,370 in the E-mini NQ.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5824.25-5827.25***, 5848.75***, 5885.25***, 5921.50-5930.50**, 6020.50-6039.75****
Pivot: 5801.50-5805
Support: 5790.75**, 5779-5785****, 5773.50-5775**, 5761-5766**, 5737-5742.50***, 5721.25-5726****
NQ (December)
Resistance: 20,503-20,517***, 20,600-20,612***, 20,852***
Pivot: 20,324-20,370*
Support: 20,214-20,251**, 20,135-20,192****
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WTI Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 67.67, down 2.02 [-2.90%]
Crude continued its fall yesterday as markets digested the new supply-side outlook.
We have some clarification out of OPEC+ this morning on their plans to increase production. Reports are stating that the Saudi “threat” of gaining market share was largely aimed at OPEC+ members Iraq and Kazakhstan. Those two have been the problem children within the group as they have continously over-produced relative to their quota.
WTI futures are consolidating today and trading near unchanged at 67.67.
While we’re cautious on flat WTI longs, we are growing more bullish on the diesel complex and spreads. If client’s are looking for long exposure at these levels in Oil, the Heating Oil Z-H spread is a good place to start. Please reach out to your Blue Line Futures broker for additional context, and help with execution.
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Although WTI is at a semi-attractive technical level for longs, we do not have confidence or clarity on what the supply side situation looks like at this time, skewing our risk outlook to the downside.
Outlook: Neutral / Bearish
WTI Crude Oil futures are attempting to stabilize at major three-star support around the $67 mark. However, this week’s textbook failure at 71.55, at the .382 retracement and defining a downtrend. Although it is important to reiterate the tremendous pockets of support denoted in our levels below, we see continued weakness until the bulls can achieve a close back above major three-star resistance at 69.49-69.69.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 68.34-68.76**, 69.23**, 69.49-69.69***, 70.01-70.39***
Pivot: 67.63
Support: 66.95-67.16***, 64.99-65.14****, 64.61**, 63.57-64.36***
| Gold Commitment of Traders |
| Silver Commitment of Traders |
| Today’s Tactical Support & Resistance Levels *Levels are created using an algorithmic proprietary price, volume, and volatility model* |
Gold
Technicals – (December – Z)
Gold futures – all-time highs (2708.7).
The next upside objective is $2718.5, while the first support comes in at 2686.1 and 2677.1. Momentum studies continue to trend higher, as the corrections have been shallow in nature. The MACD remains positive, and Daily Stochastics firmly in overbought territory. The market closed above the 9-day and 18-day moving averages, indicating that the short-term trend remains positive.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Bull Trade Trigger: 2504
Bull Trade Trigger Date: August 12
Trend Reversal Point: 2606.4
Resistance: 2724.3**, 2745.8**
Pivot: 2673.4** (Intraday Pivot)
Support: 2647.1 (September 24 Low)**, 2600*** (psychological), 2606.4 (Trend Reversal Point)***, 2550 (Psychological)***, 2519.2 (50 DMA)***
| Below is a Daily chart of December Gold futures |
Silver
Technicals (December – Z)
Silver futures corrected overnight, but they staged a recovery leading into today’s important economic data release.
The next resistance area is 33.05, followed by 34.52, with your first major support at 32.00. Momentum studies continue to trend higher, with a positive MACD and Daily Stochastics approaching overbought territory. The market closed above the 9-day moving average, indicating that the short-term trend remains positive.
For Trend Traders
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Bull Trade Trigger: 31.07
Bull Trade Trigger Date: September 13
Trend Reversal Point: 29.56
Resistance: 33.05**, 33.52**, 34.52****
Pivot: 32.00
Support: 31.69**, 30.00*** (Psychological)***, 29.55 (50 DMA)***, 29.56***(Trend Reversal Point)
| Below is a daily chart of December Silver futures |
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