Market Overview – Morning Express
Market Overview – Morning Express
E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5437.50, down 1.00 on Friday and up 81.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,685.50, up 83.00 on Friday and 647.75 on the week
Please note, we are referencing the June futures and do not roll until Tuesday of each quarterly expiration week.
The E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ finished at new weekly records on Friday and closed higher for the sixth and seventh week out of the last eight, respectively. We have certainly not been ones to shy away from calling this a stock pickers market, finding many names outside the lauded “Mag 7” to hang our hats on, however, we find the latest breadth deterioration concerning. With economic data, earnings, and the June Fed meeting in the rear-view mirror, this will be a critical week. Will the Industrial sector continue to roll over, will the Consumer Discretionary sector build out a head and shoulders top. Look at the E-mini Dow, it is still 3.5% from its March record high and the E-mini Russell finished Friday at the lowest level since May 1st. The sectors absolutely matter, but the top six names (MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, META) now account for 30% of the S&P, and right here we are talking about index futures. Price action has built out nice support in the E-mini S&P at and around 5400, detailed below. If we see continued construction out above this area and, furthermore, strength in the E-mini NQ out above 19,685-19,691, then there is no reason to think the party is over, and our Bias will remain more Bullish.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 5444-5447***, 5452.50-5454.50***, 5459.75***, 5475.75***
Pivot: 5430.50-5438.50
Support: 5424.25-5426.25**, 5413-5417**, 5408.50***, 5395.75-5397**, 5384-5387.50****, 5370.50-5375.75**, 5355.75-5359.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 19,882**, 20,000****
Pivot: 19,685-19,691
Support: 19,629-19,649**, 19,557-19,563**, 19,496-19,507****, 19,433**, 19,349-19,374***, 19,242-19,279**** 19,187-19,208**, 19,136-19,155***
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Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled 78.26, up 0.11
August WTI Crude Oil futures are front month and price action has consolidated terrifically out above the 21-day moving average since last Monday’s strong session. However, as this week unfolds, there are two stories overhead. First, price action has not traded above the 54-day moving average since breaking below it on May 1st, and this comes in at 79.34. Second, there is unfinished gap settlement resistance from the April 30th monthly settle aligning to create rare major four-star resistance with a .618 retracement. While the 54-dma is resistance, one may view the gap settlement as unfinished business and a bullseye that must be tested.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 78.85-78.94***, 80.37-80.61****
Pivot: 78.11
Support: 77.33-77.42***, 75.46-75.75***
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Gold (August) / Silver (July)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 2349.1, up 31.1 on Friday and 24.1 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 29.472, up 0.406 on Friday and 0.032 on the week
Silver futures corrected more than 12% from the May peak, and we could have seen a constructive capitulation on Thursday and Friday. We have always said the 50-day moving average is critical for Silver, and it tends to stay above or below it for an extended period of time. It comes in today at 29.12, rising from $29 through the middle of last week. Silver traded as low as 28.73 before settling the week at 29.472. That low also tested a critical .382 retracement back to the low of the year. We tend to believe markets in an uptrend (or downtrend) will remain strongly in such while holding a .382 retracement. The next few session will prove critical for Silver and we believe a close above rare major four-star resistance at 30.23-30.36, which aligns with Wednesday’s Fed gap settlement, will invite a tailwind of fresh buying.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 2341.2-2344**, 2349.1-2354.8****, 2357.8-2358.8**, 2370.2***
Support: 2329.7-2332.9***, 2322.5-2324.3**, 2316.7-2318.5***, 2308.7-2310.9***, 2302.4-2304.5***, 2227.5-2256.4***
Silver (July)
Resistance: 29.57-29.72***, 29.85-29.87**, 29.94-29.99***, 30.07-30.09**, 30.23-30.36****
Pivot: 29.37-29.47
Support: 29.06-29.13***, 28.96**, 28.70-28.80****
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Micro Bitcoin (June)
Last week’s close: Settled at 65,640, down 1,220 on Friday and 4,115 on the week
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 67,200-67,290**, 67,515-67,735**, 68,375-68,855***
Pivot: 66,450
Support: 65,565-65,640***, 65,067-65,205**, 63,236-63,325***
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