Market Overview – Morning Express
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4241.75, down 6.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,712.00, up 48.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures roared higher after an opening bell shakeout. Mondays of late of have been favorable, and even so despite a directional risk-off Friday. Added tailwinds arrived from the reprieve in Treasury yields as the U.S. 10-year went from an overnight high of 5.02%, the highest since July 2007, to as low as 4.80% into today.
Yesterday’s strength in both indices went right to where our readers should expect, major three-star resistance in the E-mini S&P at 4279.25-4284.75 and rare major four-star resistance in the E-mini NQ at 14,852-14,890. Price action settled back after the achievement and the lower close creates a line in the sand defining a potential bottom. We believe the advantage has shifted to the bulls if the E-mini S&P can hold out above major three-star support at 4235-4241.75, whereas the bears can regain the upper-hand by achieving a close below rare major four-star support at 4200-4213.25.
Resistance: 4262.50**, 4279.25-4284.75***, 4294.75*, 4299.50-4303***
Support: 4235.75-4241.75***, 4228.75**, 4200-4213.25****, 4178-4185**, 4126-4145.25****
Resistance: 14,800-14,810**, 14,852-14,890****, 14,925-14,949***
Support: 14,699-14,712***, 14,634-14,664***, 14,514-14,586***, 14,332-14,385****, 14,294***, 13,968-14,000****
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 85.49, down 2.59
Crude Oil futures have erased the pre-weekend Thursday-Friday ramp and are settling in at a critical area from $85 to $86. While specific supports are defined by the levels below, this is a notable pocket where a rally began as the November contract fell off the board last Tuesday. Price action is retesting this area for the second time since rallying from a low of 85.44 early Thursday morning. It will be critical for the bulls to defend this range as geopolitical premium is removed coming out of the weekend and U.S. inventories begin hitting the picture today and tomorrow.
Resistance: 86.16-86.28**, 86.77-86.90**, 87.53***, 88.02-88.23**, 88.57-88.71***, 89.54-89.85***
Support: 85.02***, 84.20-84.39***, 83.75-83.88***, 81.28-81.80****
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1987.8, down 6.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.21, down 0.294
Gold and Silver are on their backfoot after retreating from last Friday’s ramp that achieved a critical area of resistance at 2009.2-2012.7 and 23.80-23.88, respectively. As the situation in the Middle East evolves and communication continues, there has been a removal of some geopolitical premium in precious metals, for the time being. For instance, the gap lower Sunday night, and the reversal from overnight highs early this morning. It is also notable that Gold and Silver were unable to capitalize on Treasury strength and U.S. Dollar weakness yesterday. Today, we are seeing a bit of unwind in such moves and that is bringing a headwind to the precious metals camp. At the end of the day, Gold and Silver were due to consolidate, but what matters is whether they can build a floor out above critical areas of support and remain constructive at and above our levels detailed below.
Resistance: 1981.3**, 1987.8-1990.3***, 1994.4-1997.6***, 2009.2-2012.7****
Support: 1863.8-1865.1***, 1946.2-1950.6*** 1935.7-1938.3****
Resistance: 23.18**, 23.34-23.36**, 23.46-23.51***, 23.80-23.88****
Support: 23.89-23.94**, ,2.72-22.84****, 22.45-22.54***
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