Market Overview – Morning Express
Market Overview – Morning Express
| * Do not miss our weekly Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday. * Friday marks the last day of a tumultuous first quarter, but all is not negative. – Yes, four banks went under, SIVB, SBNY, SI, and CS. – But E-mini NQ futures are up 15% ytd as of Friday’s settlement. – Lending and credit are likely to tighten and slow growth. – But the Federal Reserve may have hiked rates for the last time last week, and inflation is set to cool. * Due to the performance of equity markets in 2022 and negative news flow this year, many managers are underweight stocks, specifically tech, and overweight cash. However, given the performance of the NQ and many individual names, this could create end-of-quarter window dressing. In other words, managers could be looking to add high-flying tech names to show in quarterly reports. * In December 2018, the Fed hiked for the final time during that cycle, yet they projected two more hikes in 2019. The stock market bottomed three days later, the Monday after Quad Witching, and the Nasdaq gained 38% in 2019. More below. * Due to the market’s reaction function, the Fed cannot signal a halt in hikes or potential cuts until the exact moment they are ready. * Last week, Powell said no plans for cuts in 2023, though the CME’s FedWatch Tool signals at least 50bps worth of cuts by yearend with an 86.3% probability. * Case Shiller and CB Consumer Confidence tomorrow. * Inflation Friday, March data, CPI from the Eurozone and the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE index. * CFTC finally updated the Commitment of Traders Reports, highlights for Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum charted below and discussed in the respective sections. |
E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4001.25, up 23,25 on Friday and 54.25 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,890.25, up 36.25 on Friday and 245.50 on the week
- * Quad Witching was the Friday before last, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures incurred heavy selling and set a low through the European open last Monday.
- * Although a low was set March 13th due to banking fears, the post-Quad Witching low pressure last Monday was relevant.
- * We are more Bullish in Bias after front-month E-mini NQ futures closed at new highs of the year, and both June E-mini NQ futures and the QQQ ETF set a new weekly closing high on the year.
- * We will continue to hold this more Bullish Bias as long as the NQ holds a floor developed last week at major three-star support at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 69.26, down 0.70 on Friday and up 2.33 on the week
- * Managed Money Net-Short in Crude Oil is now at the lowest level since January 2016.
- * The trade was not over-crowded relative to historical levels, but has been reduced by 45% in two weeks and down by 62% since the start of the year. This tells us there is room for buyers upon improving fundamentals.
- * On Friday, our major three-star support at 66.92-67.17 held perfectly.
- * Still, rare major three-star resistance overhead at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1983.8, down 12.1 on Friday and up 10.3 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.339, up 0.083 on Friday and 0.877 on the week
- * Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum all have room for buyers given low Net-Long (Silver Net-Short) positioning.
- * Much of Gold’s Net-Long positioning in the last two weeks has improved due to shorts reducing by 52%.
- * Silver is still Net-Short, this can become a very bullish tailwind.
- * Many institutions are projecting a Copper supply crunch later this year. From a positioning standpoint, there is a lot of room for buyers to step in.
- * Gold and Silver Options for April expire tomorrow.
- * Gold has strong support at 1948.3-1950, where it lifted from last week’s FOMC meeting with solid volume, though this reversal reduces our near-term excitement.
- * If Silver fails to hold $23, door could be open in the near-term to … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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