Market Overview – Morning Express
Market Overview – Morning Express
- * The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the Core PCE Index, for January is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for +4.3% y/y, down from 4.4% in December, and +0.4% m/m, up from +0.3% in December, and the highest increase since September.
- * The dataset includes Personal Spending and Income, which may be watched most closely, expected at +1.3% and +1.0%, respectively, up from -0.2% and +0.2% in December.
- * Typically, Core PCE is well forecasted and has little impact outside of a deviation because it comes two weeks after CPI and at the end of the month as the focus shifts to Nonfarm Payrolls (the following week) and current month CPI. Early estimates for February CPI via the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast is +0.55% m/m.
- * Fresh Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February is due at 9:00 am CT and is expected to improve to 66.4, up from 64.9, though Expectations are to slip to 62.3, down from 62.7.
- * Within the Michigan report, we get 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, which may be watched most closely.
- * New Home Sales data is also due at 9:00 am CT.
- * A number of Fed speakers are expected throughout the day, with Cleveland Fed President Mester on CNBC at 7:00 am CT, Fed Governor Jefferson scheduled for 9:15 am CT and Mester again at 9:15, among others.
- * New front month May Copper futures were -3.1% yesterday after trading to a lower high than January and as China growth worries percolate, but price action is testing into several critical areas of support. SEE CHART BELOW.
- March E-mini S&P futures daily hit trend line support perfectly yesterday, also back-testing the trend line from the August high. The continuous E-mini S&P trend line from the October low has been violated but not closed below. SEE CHART BELOW.
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4018.75, up 19.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,207.50, up 110.00
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4018.75-4023.25***, 4028.50-4034.25**, 4048.50***, 4055.75-4061.25**, 4087.50**, 4098.25-4103.75***
Pivot: 4012
Support: 3999-4007***, 3982-3988.50**, 3974.25**, 3938.50-3963.50****
NQ (March)
Resistance: 12,207-12,216**, 12,244-12,262**, 12,290-12,323***, 12,390-12,423***, 12,482-12,535***
Pivot: 12,158
Support: 12,055-12,110****, 12,000-12,028**, 11,850***
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Crude Oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.39, up 1.44
- * EIA yesterday, another large headline build for Crude at +7.648 mb,
- * However, Refinery Utilization -0.6% m/m (vs -0.2% exp) helps explain Crude’s build and the surprise -1.856 mb of Gasoline.
- * Also, 4-wk average of Gasoline demand improved, but still below 2021-2022 4-wk average.
- * Distillates +2.698 mb and less of a build at Cushing than API forecasted at +0.70 mb vs +0.781
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 76.71**, 77.05**, 77.44-77.67**, 78.74-78.86***, 79.41-79.76**, 80.33***
Pivot: 75.94-76.30
Support: 75.39-75.74***, 74.47-74.85***, 73.74**, 72.64-72.97***, 71.67**, 70.00-70.86***
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Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1826.8, down 14.7
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.438, down 0.378
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 1838.8-1842.2***, 1847.3**, 1854.9-1856.7**, 1865.4-1867.5**, 1874.5-1876.8***
Pivot: 1830
Support: 1827.7**, 1810.8-1815***, 1795.3-1800****
Silver (May)
Resistance: 21.48-21.58**, 21.79**, 21.96-22.14***
Pivot: 21.31
Support: 20.79-21.08****, 20.43-20.57***
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