Market Overview – Morning Express

3 years ago 988 views 5 min read

Bill Baruch

President and Founder

Blue Line Futures

– Do not miss our Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday

– U.S. equity benchmarks stay bid, energies and metals come in.

– President Biden made an unscripted call for regime change in Russia during a speech in Warsaw, Poland. European allies have distanced themselves from the comments and we have not heard anything official from the Kremlin.

– Ukraine and Russia are expected to begin diplomatic talks later today in Turkey. Kremlin noted this morning talks are unlikely to get underway today.

– Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said Ukraine is willing to accept permanent neutrality for basis of peace but needs third party guarantees. Also opened the door for status of eastern Ukraine states.

– Shanghai, population of 26 million on southeastern coast of China, begins two-stage lockdown today to control virus outbreak. Work from home orders coupled with suspension of public transit and ride hailing.

– Bitcoin reaches highest level this year, eyeing $50,000, as CME launches Micro Bitcoin and Ether options.

– Apple stock -1.5% premarket on plans to reduce iPhone and AirPod production due to demand slowdown and rising inflation.

– Tesla stock +5% premarket on SEC filing will ask shareholders to vote to increase number of shares to enable stock split in form of dividend. Effectively diluting the share price.

– Both Apple and Tesla have been the leaders upon this recent rebound; watch their trade closely today.

– Big week of economic data and Fed speak starts of slow today, PMIs throughout the week, and finishes with Nonfarm Payrolls.

– Treasury will auction $50 billion 2-years and $51 billion 5-years today. Also, $47 billion 7-years tomorrow.

– U.S 10-year yield hits new swing high of 2.557% and 2-year high of 2.414%. Spread new flat price. (10-year trend line chart)

– Despite curve flattening seen through 2-10 and 5-30, the 3-month – 10-year spread has steepened, before falling off today. (10-2 chart above)

E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4536.50, up 24.00 on Friday and 83.00 on the week

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,755.75, down 8.00 on Friday and up 342.25 on the week

– Early wave of selling Friday found a floor and worked higher to settle at or near session highs. That floor is now major three-star support at 4493-4498.50 in the S&P and 14,565-14,595 in the NQ.

– Although we see little value in the near-term at the elevated levels, given the constant bid we will maintain a cautiously Bullish Bias while out above those defined floors.

– NQ is consolidating after leading higher and testing 50% retracement back to record high. (chart above)

– Our momentum indicator has flatlined in the NQ, but still showing slight rise in the S&P. These align to create Pivot and point of balance at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!

Crude Oil (May)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 113.90, up 1.56 on Friday and 10.81 on the week

– China’s Shanghai lockdowns creates near-term demand worries, energy prices come in sharply.

– Russia-Ukraine diplomatic talks in Turkey resume Tuesday.

– OPEC+ meets later this week, given the above likely to keep stable addition of 400,000 bpd in May.

– Do not forget already over-compliant by 136% and Saudi Arabia excusing itself from calls to add due to attacks. Can the cartel bring more production online?

– Head and shoulders top build through last week, Friday’s right shoulder. (chart above)

– Rare major four-star support defines the latest leg and a break below here neutralizes near-term strength as it could force selling for larger players looking to avoid two-sided volatility, at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!