Making Hay Monday – December 23rd, 2024
Making Hay Monday
Merry Christmas & a Happy Final MHM of the Year
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Hello and Merry Christmas Week, Readers!
We hope you’re all getting ready to sign-off for some last-minute festivity preparations ahead of Christmas Eve. We also hope that, just before signing off, you’ll find time for our final Making Hay Monday edition of 2024. You can expect a “one more thing” Trading Alert and probably an announcement or two prior to the dawn of 2025, but as far as our hefty MHM material, this is it for the year… and this one’s definitely hefty.
Included along with our COWs and updated asset-class lists are some newsletter excerpts from our fellow Substacker, Trader Ferg, along with a few chart and quote gems from the minds of Vincent Deluard and David Rosenberg, a French-Canadian pairing if ever there was one (as in one’s French and one’s Canadian).
We thank you all for your support as we’ve worked weekly to bring you candid and perhaps, at times, a little too contrarian MHMs throughout the year. Stick with us in the months ahead and see the effort we’re willing to exert in order to bring you new insights and exciting developments, particularly in what the elder Haymaker considers his favored arena: energy (nuclear above all).
A truly merry Christmas to you all, from The Haymaker Team
Grant Williams, TTMYGH
Europe has been most fortunate to have experienced two consecutive warm winters in the wake of Russia’s heinous attack on Ukraine. Yet, it has also been blessed by America’s nearly miraculous shift from the world’s largest natural gas importer 20 years ago to its most prolific exporter. Additionally, the Continent has benefited from the build-out of massive gas liquefaction facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Because there are no pipelines connecting North America with Europe, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) these produce have allowed it to survive drastic reductions in Russian gas deliveries. U.S. LNG may be yet more essential this year as colder weather was occurring even before winter’s official start.
Muir, The MacroTourist
Despite the contradiction-filled press conference Jay Powell conducted last week, one aspect that came out loud and clear was the Fed’s inflation outlook for next year. Per the above chart, it is now projected to approximate 2.4% in 2025. That’s about ¼% higher than the Fed forecast as recently as September. Most Americans likely doubt the accuracy of that number as well as the one for 2024… and they don’t think they’re off on the low side.
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“With respect to ‘neutral’, Powell says we now aren’t that far away from it and then goes on to say that policy is still meaningfully restrictive. How can both thoughts co-exist? The contradictions in this presser had my head spinning.” -David Rosenberg, 12/19/24
“If you think you understand what I said, I must not have been clear enough.” -Widely attributed to Alan Greenspan, back when he was considered to be the Maestro of the Fed
Evergreen Compatibility Survey
Power Punchers
As our Founding Members learned last Wednesday, there are three highly contrarian suggestions we’d like to make before you go into portfolio management shut-down mode at year-end. (Perhaps it’s now too late for that, but we’ll assume some of you are using the Holiday interlude for investment reflection.)
The first nudge is to cash in some gains from stocks that have had explosive run-ups in 2024. For tax purposes, it’s best to do so in a tax-deferred account, such as an IRA. If you don’t have one of those, you could take some offsetting losses or wait until the first trading day of next year.
Admittedly, those gains might be a bit smaller after last Wednesday’s power dive, triggered by Jay Powell’s confusing post-Fed meeting press conference. That swoon occurred after we composed last week’s Trading Alert. However, recent Haymaker editions have been expressing our guarded stock market outlook which we maintain despite Friday’s partial recovery…
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
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