Macro Monday Missive – February 24th, 2026
Macro Monday Missive
Goodbye, YOLO. Hello, HALO.
“Markets are driven by people’s expectations, and expectations change faster than fundamentals.” -Ray Dalio
Goodbye, YOLO. Hello, HALO.
TLDR summary:
Durability Rotation Underway: 2026 is shaping up as a regime shift, with the Magnificent Seven and enterprise software selling off on AI disruption fears while energy, materials, and consumer staples materially outperform.
The Rise of HALO: Wall Street has been pouring into the recent winners: “HALO” stocks (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence), the shares of companies built on tangible infrastructure and physical production that cannot be disrupted by an AI prompt.
Repricing Existential Risk: Investors are not merely seeking safety; they are reassessing competitive durability as AI threatens to commoditize code, compress software moats, and erode the premium once assigned to asset-light scalability…
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