Is the NZD Too Cheap?
Over the last 22 years from December 24 to December 31, the NZDUSD pair has gained over 90% of the time and has risen 20 times. The largest gain was over 4% in 2010. Will we see NZDUSD gain again this year despite the latest hawkish Fed meeting as the dot plot projected higher rates for longer for the US than the market was expecting?
Major Trade Risks: The main risk to this seasonal pattern would be strong risk-off trading that also results in USD strength or hawkish Fed re-pricing after the latest dot plot.
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