Haymaker Friday Edition
Haymaker Friday Edition
Spring 2025 Breakout Charts
“Maybe we should take Trump at his word: He wants to remake the U.S. economy, and has said he’s willing to absorb the pain necessary to do that. We should invest like he means it.” -Ben Levisohn, in his March 31st, 2025, Barron’s Up & Down Wall Street column
“Yesterday ranked as the 28th worst session for the S&P 500 since 1954. In other words, a 1-in-10,000 event.” -David Rosenberg, in this morning’s Breakfast with Dave
“The markets are going to boom.” -President Donald Trump, April 3rd, 2025 (perhaps he should have said “go boom”?)
Chart Extravaganza!
Regular, and maybe even irregular, readers are undoubtedly aware that I believe multi-year breakouts from trading ranges are highly significant. The same is true with breakdowns and, should the S&P and NASDAQ continue to crack, those will become even more critical to monitor. (Based on today’s plunge, on top of yesterday’s bungee jump, there might be a slew of stocks breaking multi-year support. Maybe Liberation Day was meant to liberate investors from what had been illusions of financial brilliance, at least in the case of those who grossly overpaid for high-momentum shares with alluring stories.)
However, this study of breakouts begs the question as to whether these events actually are worthy of your attention and examination. This Haymaker edition is meant to answer that pertinent query, at least in terms of breakouts, otherwise known as upside range expansions..
Speaking of charts, now that I am no longer working full-time, my intent is to run more chartbook editions via the Friday Haymakers. Typically, those will be based on macro, or big picture, trends versus individual stocks. Periodically, though, I’ll likely throw in some interesting stock charts despite that those will usually end up inside of a Making Hay Monday.
To the point of this edition, I had asked one of my former team members at Evergreen Gavekal to begin tracking a lengthy list of stocks breaking out back toward the end of 2023. Enough time has elapsed since then to do a look-back at how these have done.
There were 70 that made the cut at the time, large enough to be a meaningful sample set, in my view. Rather than overwhelm you with all of these, we’re showing “just” the first 20. They are not in any particular order and, as you will see, a couple of them haven’t been standout performers. Out of this collection there were two laggards: Shell and Elevance, especially the latter; I’ll come back to those shortly. (Note, the below charts are not updated for the carnage of the last two days.)…
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that David Hay has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
David Hay serves on the Investment Committee in his capacity as Co-Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Evergreen in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed the firm or David Hay. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Please note that while David Hay co-manages the investment program on behalf of Evergreen clients, this publication is not affiliated with Evergreen and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Investment Committee. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
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