Haymaker Friday Edition
Haymaker Friday Edition
LVG on Haircuts & Inflation
Hello, Readers!
For those of you not joining us for today’s Ask Haymaker Anything! webinar — and even if you are — we wanted to provide you with some thoughtful written commentary. For this Friday’s Haymaker, we are once again running an article from one of our most dedicated and talented allies, Louis Gave.
In our view, his piece provides an excellent perspective on inflation and what the more accurate rate might be for consumers in their everyday lives. As you will see, it’s a very simple measure. One could argue that it is the inflation equivalent of the Big Mac Index that evaluates the purchasing power of various leading currencies using McDonald’s iconic—and very internationalized–burger.
Maybe part of our affinity for this article is because, as you may know, we’re big fans of Vincent Deluard, whose work is heavily quoted in this note. But we also think Louis Gave’s contributed logic is spot-on.
Donald Trump’s proposed policies are almost certain to make the underlying inflationary impulses even stronger and more durable. However, should they trigger a global tariff war, that may lead to a serious recession and at least temporary deflation. That’s not the most probable outcome but it is a non-trivial risk.
Let your friends and colleagues know how much you appreciate Haymaker by sharing with them our newsletter!
Despite rampant Trumphoria, we’re sticking to our overarching thesis that the next four years are likely to be volatile and chaotic. If so, that could create some compelling investment opportunities when the present hyper-optimism collides with hard reality.
Warmly,
David “The Haymaker” Hay
Evergreen Compatibility Survey
The Drivers Of US Inflation
Louis-Vincent Gave
In 2018, Donald Trump decreed that no one would be allowed to sell high-end semiconductors to China any more. This came as an electroshock to the Chinese leadership, which had perhaps overlooked the country’s dependence on semiconductor imports. From that point on, China not only accelerated the development of its own semiconductor industry (clumsily at first, lately with more success), it also sought to ensure its self-sufficiency in pretty much every other important industrial input. If the US could ban semiconductor shipments today, tomorrow it could be chemicals, essential metrology equipment or jet engines.
For access to today’s full content, including our weekly-updated “Priority Asset Classes”, become a paid member today! Haymaker is your portal to sharp investment knowledge delivered by a 45-year veteran of the high-finance arena. Market insights this actionable are definitely worth a premium. See you down below!…
Subscribe to Haymaker to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of Haymaker to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
A subscription gets you:
 | Subscriber-only posts and full archive |
| Post comments and join the community |
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that David Hay has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
David Hay serves on the Investment Committee in his capacity as Co-Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Evergreen in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed the firm or David Hay. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Please note that while David Hay co-manages the investment program on behalf of Evergreen clients, this publication is not affiliated with Evergreen and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Investment Committee. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
20241115
