Haymaker Friday Edition
Haymaker Friday Edition
Election Edition
An Election Reflection
Chart: 270towin.com
(Note: The following is another personal message from the elder Haymaker who, as you will read, has mixed feelings on Tuesday’s shocking, at least to the professional pollster community, outcome.)
“I am tempted to say that the only comeback it’s not bigger than is the Resurrection.” -Niall Ferguson, referring to Donald Trump’s unexpectedly lopsided election win
“The media, it must be said, did not fulfill its role in educating the public and advancing truth as their primary objective. Refusal to explore Trump’s manifest defects and place him and his movement in the context of fascist strongmen and their cults had the effect of normalizing and legitimizing a candidate utterly unfit for office.” -The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin
“The extreme left is leading us into a ditch.” -Washington State Congressman, Adam Smith (D)
When Donald Trump shocked the world in 2016 by winning his first term, many on the Right hailed him as the second coming of Ronald Reagan. Being my usual contrarian self, I speculated he might wind up more like the scandal-plagued former prime minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi.
The parallels between the two men are both numerous and striking. This includes their perma-tans, billionaire wealth, sex scandals and amazing ability to overcome their political baggage, with overflowing carry-ons, to be voted back into office after losing re-election bids. (Berlusconi was actually elected three times.)
Eight years ago, that was a controversial view but, unfortunately, that’s pretty much how events played out. Mr. Trump’s first term was a carnival ride, with soaring highs and plunging lows, hitting rock bottom with the most destabilizing transfer of power in January 2021, in U.S. history. It also included a global pandemic that may well have cost him a consecutive re-election.
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As it emerged that Donald Trump intended to run again, I became an ardent supporter of No Labels, a bipartisan organization. Its intent was to run a “Unity Ticket” comprised of a centrist Democrat and Republican. Yet, no realistically electable candidates agreed to run against Joe Biden (at the time) and Donald Trump. My point is that I’m no fan of Mr. Trump and I believe even millions of GOPers agree with me, as many have told me privately.
Despite all of his manifold flaws, the fact of the matter is he won in what constitutes a landslide these days. The Democrat party was a “yuge” loser, with what looks to be all branches of the government ending up in GOP hands. It’s truly a nightmare scenario for a party that was so certain of its intellectual and moral superiority. (Another big loser was the pollster community that, once again, totally whiffed on what it collectively thought would be a dead-heat and was embarrassingly wrong on a number of state races.)
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that David Hay has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
David Hay serves on the Investment Committee in his capacity as Co-Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Evergreen in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed the firm or David Hay. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Please note that while David Hay co-manages the investment program on behalf of Evergreen clients, this publication is not affiliated with Evergreen and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Investment Committee. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
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