Haymaker Friday Edition
Haymaker Friday Edition
Haymaker Chartbook
Hello, Readers and Subscribers:
From time to time, a handful of “must see” charts pile up here at House Haymaker (we analyze a lot of them), necessitating a chartbook edition — this is one of those times. Today’s high-finance smorgasbord starts off with some AI data, courtesy of the Rosenberg Research team, and wraps up with a look at cash on the sidelines relative to market capitalization, per the astute analysts of BCA Research. Everything in between is also worth a gander (whatever a gander is).
We hope you enjoy the charts and, especially, your weekend. As mentioned earlier this week, we’ll be taking a close look at natural gas in the upcoming Making Hay Monday edition. It’s possible the bottom is in for energy after the recent nasty sell-off. And as much as we like oil at these depressed prices, we believe the long-term outlook for gas is even brighter!
The Haymaker Team
P.S. We encourage you all to read this linked piece from Haymaker friend Michael Lewitt, The Credit Strategist. It deals with one of the pressing matters of our day: the deterioration of institutional trust, in this case furthered by serious rule violations on part of several Federal Reserve officials.
“Russia is the leader in reserves of a number of strategic raw materials: for natural gas, this is almost 22% of world reserves, for gold – almost 23%, for diamonds – almost 55% … Maybe we should think about certain restrictions: uranium, titanium, nickel.” -Russian President, Vladimir Putin
Haymaker Chartbook
Oil demand is likely to increase at a slow but steady rate over the balance of this decade, led by emerging market usage. The biggest upside may come from supply shortfalls, despite current concerns about a crude glut. For natural gas, the consumption outlook is much more bullish driven by rapidly growing U.S. data-center power needs. There is also the surging demand globally for American liquefied natural gas (LNG). This increase could amount to over 11 billion cubic feet/day, about 10% of total current U.S. production, and roughly a doubling of current LNG exports. It does beg the question of where all the gas will come from to supply those shipments. As with oil, natural gas production growth in the U.S. appears to be stalling out.
Rosenberg, BWD
It is becoming increasingly obvious that EV growth is decelerating and, in some countries, such as Germany, actually contracting. Yet, there is a pervasive view that oil is destined to be phased out. Even prior to the mounting EV travails, forecasts were for gasoline-powered vehicles to be much more numerous in 2040 than they are today. Naturally, there is a big difference between predictions and reality, but the move away from EVs toward hybrids elevates the credibility of the below. (Copious thanks to the talented and data-driven team at Cornerstone Macro for the below visual.)
Cornerstone Analytics
Evergreen Compatibility Survey
While U.S. nuclear plant construction is now dormant in the wake of the opening of the two Vogtle atomic facilities (approved 15 years ago), Asia is aggressively embracing nuclear energy. …
Subscribe to Haymaker to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of Haymaker to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
A subscription gets you:
 | Subscriber-only posts and full archive |
| Post comments and join the community |
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that David Hay has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
David Hay serves on the Investment Committee in his capacity as Co-Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Evergreen in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed the firm or David Hay. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Please note that while David Hay co-manages the investment program on behalf of Evergreen clients, this publication is not affiliated with Evergreen and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Investment Committee. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
20240914
