Haymaker Friday Edition
Haymaker Friday Edition
Special Edition: Great Minds
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“There are times to make money and there are times when the focus should be on not losing too much money. Today, my conviction is that investors should focus on ‘staying rich”, rather than ‘getting rich’. This is not a time to be a hero. The goal is to survive.” -Charles Gave, esteemed friend and mentor of the Haymaker
“The social media panic in response to a not even 10% equity market correction was remarkable…The social media commentary exhibited an element of entitlement, as if the Federal Reserve is here to backstop people’s risk taking.” -Mike O’Rourke, Jones Trading’s Chief Market Strategist
Based on the wild market volatility seen since last Thursday, the monster rally in the formerly pulverized yen, the related blow-up in the yen carry trade, and rising recession fears, we thought a Haymaker Special Edition was in order. Accordingly, we’re offering our subscribers summary thoughts on these events and others from some of Team Haymaker’s brightest allies. As you will soon see, this is a most impressive collection of financial strategists and economic experts.
It is with high gratitude that we share their insights; we do thank them profusely for their contributions to this issue. It’s comforting to know we’ve got friends… especially, of such lofty stature. Reflecting their acuity, all of them have, in recent months, been warning of trouble looming, both for the economy and stocks.
One point we’ll make on volatility is our shock at seeing the main index measure of this – the VIX – hit 65 on Monday. That’s among the highest readings ever, indicating mass panic in the equity market. Yet, even at the low, the S&P was within 9% of the all-time-high it set just last month. This is an oddity we admit we don’t fully understand. Then again, bizarre developments continue to occur with increasing frequency these days!
Another side note is that we wanted to clarify a comment we made in this week’s Making Hay Monday edition. In it, we indicated that global oil demand this year was running 2.6 million barrels a day higher than in 2023. While that appears to be accurate for July 2024 vs July 2023, the last 12 months have not shown that type of cumulative increase.
The Haymaker Team
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that David Hay has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
David Hay serves on the Investment Committee in his capacity as Co-Chief Investment Officer of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Evergreen in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed the firm or David Hay. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Please note that while David Hay co-manages the investment program on behalf of Evergreen clients, this publication is not affiliated with Evergreen and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Investment Committee. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
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