Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures provides Corn, Soybean, Wheat Trading Analysis for September 30th, 2021.
Corn Trading Analysis (December)
Fundamentals: Today is the day that we’ve all been waiting for; end of the month, end of the quarter, and the quarterly USDA stocks report. This has the potential to add volatility to the markets and give us misleading intraday moves. Recent history shows a friendly trend in the quarterly stocks reports, trading 4% higher in 6 of the last 8 report days. The average analyst estimate is 1.155 billion bushels. This would be a notch below the 1.187 we saw in the USDA report in the beginning of the month. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 370,400 MT for 2021/2022.
Technicals: December corn futures are testing first resistance this morning, that comes in from 540-541 ¾, this represents the recent top end of the range. All the outside noise aside, the chart is looking constructive. A breakout above first resistance could take us to the more significant 549 ¾-553 level. This pocket represents previously important price points, the 100-day moving average, and a key Fibonacci retracement.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 540-541 ¾**, 549 ¾-553****, 558**
Support: 512 ¾-514 ¼***, 497 ½-500***, 477 ½-480 ¾****
Soybeans Trading Analysis (November)
Fundamentals: It’s the last trading day of the month and quarter which could throw some wrenches into today’s price action, not to mention we have a USDA report out at 11:00 AM CT. As with corn, recent quarterly stocks reports have been friendly for soybeans too, closing higher on the last 9 quarterly stocks report days. The average analyst estimate is .174 billion bushels, just a hair below the .175 we saw in the USDA report in the beginning of the month. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 1,093,900 MT for 2021/2022.
Technicals: We probably sound like a broken record this week, but November soybeans are continuing to linger in our pivot pocket, 1278 ¼-1286. A conviction move above or below the pivot pocket could set the tone for the next directional move. Today’s session could be the catalyst for that.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1300 ½-1306 ¾***, 1325 ¾-1333****, 1350-1352***
Pivot: 1278 ¼-1286
Support: 1259 ¾-1262 ¾***, 1240 ½****
Wheat Trading Analysis (December)
Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures were relatively mute yesterday and are echoing that same sentiment in the early morning trade, as market participants await today’s quarterly stocks report. The average analyst estimate is 1.852 billion bushels. The US Dollar broke out yesterday, something we’ve been talking about for the better part of the last two-weeks. Grains held remarkably well considering the move in the currency. This morning’s weekly export sales report showed net sales of 290,100 metric tons (MT) for 2021/2022 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Technicals: Our bias and daily technical analysis remain unchanged from yesterday’s report. If the bulls can continue to defend 698 ¾-703, we would have another higher low, which could encourage trend traders to step in and take prices to higher highs. The two things that keep us from getting overly optimistic on higher prices is the fact that we are already at (historically) higher prices and the strengthening US Dollar.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 733 ¼**, 744 ¾-750****
Pivot: 718 ½-723 ½
Support: 698¾-703****, 675-680 ½****, 650-652 ½**
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