As most of you know… I am a USD bull all year and will remain so…. and I am a FED hawk and that will remain that way… the reason why I say this is, that i would therefore be a natural Bear for Gold, by the pure USD correlation while the Inflation story just cannot stick for Gold, unless the market would shift the view towards Inflation to spiral out of control BUT I see none of that in Fixed income or anywhere else….. my comment on Gold on here is a pure technical one and I am also very aware of the fact that we have NFP tomorrow that can change everything we say today BUT
Those of you that know me well, know how much I LOVE exhausting flags and how much attention I pay when they pop up…. and I even respect them if they are on the opposite side of my view.
Fact is, Gold is creating an exhausting flag on the daily charts….. this is a reversal pattern and 9 from 10 times NOT a continuation pattern… the formation starts to warn me about the chance that Gold could rip higher…. that may not mean a trend change in the bigger picture but a sudden shift of a few weeks….
What do we have to look out for….. the Flag gets triggered when we were to break 1787… target could easily be at least 1825 but could also rally beyond 1825, especially if we were to get a weak NFP tomorrow.
A break of the 1749 level would NEUTRALISE the FLAG and we can forget all we have said above…..
I send this out as I said, because the formation I see would probably go against the current theme in the market and of course, if we get a stunning NFP tomorrow, a big USD rally… it is fair to assume that we might break 1749 and that Flag is over…
Should we get a neutral NFP tomorrow, then we definitely WANT to pay attention to those both levels… the trigger level (1787) and the neutraliser (1744)
Good luck tomorrow