Friday Haymaker
Friday Haymaker
The case for “Muir” alumin(i)um
Hello, Subscribers:
You say “aluminum”, recent Haymaker Webinar guest James Aitken says “aluminium”, Kevin Muir says to buy it no matter how you pronounce it. For this week’s Haymaker, we’re returning to the latter’s wellspring of investment insight, as Mr. Muir (author of the MacroTourist) has trained his eye on a specific commodity which we ourselves find deserving increased attention. (He’s also bullish on Alcoa, AA, on which we put out a buy recommendation, along with aluminum, on November 3rd; AA, the far easier way to play this theme, has already vaulted by 20%, a commendable performance in a month.) Below this introduction, you’ll find excerpts from a recent MacroTourist piece, along with a button to his terrific Substack page (subscribe if you haven’t already done so!).
You’ll either agree or you won’t, but here’s what it comes down to: AI is electricity-intensive; tech stocks are driving the developed world’s collective economies; commodity resources underpinning AI specifically and tech stocks more broadly are market linchpins of this era’s precariously engineered market construction. Among those linchpins at the moment is none other than alumin(i)um.
That’s the case in a nutshell. The world’s power needs will be rising indefinitely, AI is here to stay, data centers are multiplying, and the world of zeroes and ones still needs hard stuff to keep going. Companies and sectors well-positioned to capitalize on the fact that the lights staying on will require the mining, smelting, refining, shipping, and advanced machining of key metals will themselves carry on with varying degrees of profitability and investment viability.
The good news for you is that, as Haymaker subscribers, you have it on triple authority from Kevin “The MacroTourist” Muir, James “The Aussie” Aitken, and the Haymaker himself that aluminum is worth a close look, maybe even a substantial investment. Finding the right investment vehicle to align with your needs is a matter of individual preference, but we suggest you keep an eye on commodity plays, not just aluminum, which are looking better by the day.
The Haymaker Team
Muir excerpts follow…
The other day I was lamenting the lack of opportunities in the US equity market. As you folks know, I am worried about valuations and the potential of the economy rolling over. I can’t bring myself to pay 22x NTM EPS for the S&P 500 at what I think will be pretty close to peak earnings (for this cycle). …
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions.
David Hay is a passive owner of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As of 03/31/2025 Mr. Hay has no involvement in the day to day operations of Evergreen, nor is he involved with any investment research, or investment management performed by Evergreen. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on an individual’s investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security or investment strategy discussed in this presentation.
David “The Haymaker” Hay
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and David Hay makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on David Hay’s beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to David Hay on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized or that an investment strategy will be successful. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
David Hay shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinion, forecast, projection, risk assumption, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s investment objectives, guidelines, or restrictions.
David Hay is a passive owner of Evergreen Gavekal (“Evergreen”), a registered investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. As of 03/31/2025 Mr. Hay has no involvement in the day to day operations of Evergreen, nor is he involved with any investment research, or investment management performed by Evergreen. The information herein reflects the personal views of David Hay as a seasoned investor in the financial markets and any recommendations noted may be materially different than the investment strategies that Evergreen manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
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