Daily TA & Trade Ideas – 3rd Mar 2021
$Index topped exactly at strong resistance at 9120/30 with a bearish engulfing candle trapping any bulls in losses. Unfortunately this keeps us in an erratic sideways trend, meaning signals are unreliable & we rarely sustain a move in 1 direction for more than 2 days.
I am hoping for a break above 91.40 for a clear buy signal & probably the start of a bull trend, giving us a swing trade opportunity.
Sometimes it is best to sit it out & wait for an opportunity – I think that is the case again for today.
AUDUSD has crawled slowly higher beating resistance at 7765/75 to hit the next target & strong resistance again at 7830/50
NZDUSD also manages to crawl slowly higher to retest first resistance at 7280/7300.
USDJPY barely moving with signs we are running out of steam as we hit the August high at 106.95/107.05.
EURJPY we wrote: in a 9 month bull trend so we remain buyers on weakness.
However unfortunately we bounced just 7 pips above good support at 128.10/127.90.
CADJPY bottomed exactly at first support at 8410/8390 & continues higher to 8470 in the bull trend.
EURUSD keeps reversing the previous day’s move. Yesterday we won back all of Monday’s losses. As I have said, no trend, pattern or clear signals to follow. This is one of the most difficult pairs to trade at the moment. Moves are random, erratic & reliable levels are difficult to identify because we have held a range of only 400 pips for 3 months (and a range of 300 pips for 1 month).
Having said that we bottomed exactly at 500 week moving average support at 1.2000/1.1990 & shot higher to the first target & very strong resistance at 1.2090/1.2110. We topped exactly here.
So these levels were perfect!
USDCAD has retraced 50% of the strong recovery at the end of last week.
GBPUSD consolidates losses this week, trading mostly sideways in erratic, unpredictable & quite random moves from hour to hour.
EURGBP dipped to the 8635/30 target & held a 30 pip range yesterday.
Gold Spot outlook remains negative despite a bounce to resistance at 1735/40. As I expected, we topped exactly here but have held here over night.
We topped exactly at the break point selling opportunity at 1755/60. Shorts worked perfectly on the 45 point collapse & the outlook remains negative so hold the shorts.
Silver Spot break below 2630/20 was a sell signal but we only dipped as far as 2585 before we unexpectedly shot higher to 2690. We have held a 250 tick range for over 4 months with no other pattern or trend to give us a decent signal.
WTI Crude APRIL Future beat first resistance at 6020/40 but held the neck line at 6130/40. Outlook remains negative. A break below 5910 is an important sell signal today.
Emini S&P March held a 40 point range, holding first resistance at 3900/10 & first support at 3880/70, with a low just 5 points below in a very quiet session.
Nasdaq March choppy & volatile over the past 2 weeks but without clear direction, holding a 700 point range. I am not going to add a spreadsheet of trades today as I have to wait for FX signals. I do not see much point in new positions at this stage. I feel AUDUSD will reverse soon but NZDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD I have no strong ideas. USDCAD I would rather be long than short but I cannot currently identify a good entry level.
I am short Gold & WTI Crude.
