I have tried and tried to be a dollar bull this year!! The problem being we have seen deep corrections & long periods of sideways action.In fact through February, the dollar sank steadily, almost retesting the January low. The dollar only really rallied from the last 2 days of February through to the first week of March & then we only traded sideways to lower. You see the problem! Although by early March we had seen a new high for 2021, by mid March we were trading below early February highs, making no progress whatsoever.
Finally on Thursday we beat the early March high, Fibonacci resistance & the 200 day moving average at 9240/50 – but even then the shooting star candle was a confusing negative signal. Friday’s hammer helps to negate this negative signal with the weekly close well through the important resistance at 9240/50 confirming a positive outlook. We have also beaten the 100 month MA at 9245 to add further weight to the positive outlook as we test important 10 YEAR trend line resistance at 9300/10. (Perhaps it was this trend line which triggered the selling at Thursday’s high).
If we can beat this trend line then it looks likely $Index can really accelerate higher after building a solid base. Obviously failure to hold above 9240 would be a disaster for bulls this week.
AUDJPY could be forming a head & shoulders top – holding strong resistance at 8380/8400 this week will make that more likely – with a break below the neck line at 8230/20 triggering completion of the negative pattern.
|outlook is more positive after last week’s bullish breakout
|Bulls need a break above 10 year trend line resistance at 9310.
|buy 1.4840/20 stop below 1.4780
|Gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 7620/30 & 7660/80
|gains are likely to be limited with resistance at 7015/25 & 7060/70
|holding above 109.20/30 is positive for the pair this week.
|strong support at 128.40/20
|important resistance at 8790/8810 where we watch for negative double top
|best support again this week at 8610/8590.
|important level of the week is at 1.1810/30
|3 month trend line support at 1.1770/60
|Best support for today at 1.2570/50.
|A break above 1.2630 this week can initially target 1.2675/85.
|very strong resistance at 1.3810/20 & again at 1.3880/00.
|double top at resistance at 109.20/30? Shorts need stops 109.45.
|support at the 4 week low at 8550/30.
|resistance at 3 week highs at 8640/50
|9 year trend line, 200 wma support 1.5450/00, stops below 1.5230
|Strong support at 5880/60 on the weekly chart, stops below 5830.
|key resistance at 8380/8400. (Could be a head & shoulders forming?)
|watch for a double top at 152.40/60.
|Outlook positive with strong support at 9320/00