Daily TA & Trade Ideas – 28th Mar 2021

I have tried and tried to be a dollar bull this year!! The problem being we have seen deep corrections & long periods of sideways action.In fact through February, the dollar sank steadily, almost retesting the January low. The dollar only really rallied from the last 2 days of February through to the first week of March & then we only traded sideways to lower. You see the problem! Although by early March we had seen a new high for 2021, by mid March we were trading below early February highs, making no progress whatsoever.

Finally on Thursday we beat the early March high, Fibonacci resistance & the 200 day moving average at 9240/50 – but even then the shooting star candle was a confusing negative signal. Friday’s hammer helps to negate this negative signal with the weekly close well through the important resistance at 9240/50 confirming a positive outlook. We have also beaten the 100 month MA at 9245 to add further weight to the positive outlook as we test important 10 YEAR trend line resistance at 9300/10. (Perhaps it was this trend line which triggered the selling at Thursday’s high). 

If we can beat this trend line then it looks likely $Index can really accelerate higher after building a solid base. Obviously failure to hold above 9240 would be a disaster for bulls this week. 
AUDJPY could be forming a head & shoulders top – holding strong resistance at 8380/8400 this week will make that more likely – with a break below the neck line at 8230/20 triggering completion of the negative pattern.