Key Market Overview
– Senate aims to pass a stopgap bill to keep the government open through December 3rd, and get to President Biden’s desk hours before deadline.
– Stopgap bill removes Democrats request to suspend the debt ceiling; this becomes next hurdle with a deadline of October 18th.
– House may vote on a watered-down $1 trillion infrastructure bill today
– Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen are back on the hill at 9:00 am CT.
– Both reads of China Manufacturing released last night. Government driven survey contracted for the first time since Feb 2020 at 49.6 and expected at 50.1. The private survey beat at 50.0, avoiding contraction, while expected at 49.5.
– Weekly Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT. Initial Claims are expected at 335k, a drop from last week’s surprise rise to 351k. The pandemic low came three weeks ago at 310k.
– Final Q2 GDP also due at 7:30 am CT, expected to remain at 6.6%.
– Chicago PMI 8:45 am CT
– Natural Gas storage data at 9:30 am CT
– Deluge of additional Fed speak, six scheduled, including NY President Williams 9:00 am CT, Atlanta President Bostic 10:00 am CT, and Chicago President Evans 11:30 am CT; all 2021 voters.
– U.S. Dollar ramp into end of Q3 front and center
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
The S&P500, yesterday’s close: Settled at Settled at 4349.75, up 6.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at Settled at 14,739.75, down 25.00
– Selling into settlement yesterday was quickly bought.
– S&P held three tests into major three-star support at 4337-4343.25 yesterday, including that at the close.
– Overnight rally stalled against major three-star resistance at 4387.25
– Intraday ceiling yesterday at 4376
– NQ settled right into major three-star support at 14,740-14,765, brief breach held support at August 19th low at 14,699
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 74.83, down 0.46
– EIA build and lukewarm China data weighing on Crude
– Testing major three-star support at 73.58-73.98 second time this week
– 500,000 bpd in estimated production came back, influenced the surprise build.
– Despite build in Crude, Net Imports down and Weekly Refinery Utilization higher
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1722.9, down 14.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.485, down 0.982
– Yesterday’s flush in Silver has begun to accomplish necessary cleansing.
– Given Silver, Gold is holding well into the thick of the August 9-10th price action, higher low overnight compared to yesterday.
– Look for stability above momentum indicators at 1731 in Gold and 21.65 for Silver to encourage a recovery.
– Silver must close back above 22.02-22.35 to neutralize yesterday’s selloff
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