Blue Line – Morning Express September 24th, 2021

Blue Line Morning Express |
– Fed speak front and center. Chair Powell speaks at 9:00 am CT, accompanied by Fed Governors Clarida and Bowman.
– To reiterate our statement yesterday: The bank threaded the needle on Wednesday. They emphasized conditions for a taper are very near but decisively disassociated that from a rate hike. We believe their rhetoric was dovish, but economic projections and dot plot exuded hawkish undertones. Will those undertones be amplified?
– Yesterday, U.S. 10-year yield finished at 1.43%, highest since July 5th. A notable move in 30-year Bond yield to 1.94%. Futures are showing more of a pattern breakout (chart above).
– Yields retreated a bit overnight due to ongoing Evergrande saga, -11.6%.
– Company failed to make payments by Thursday’s deadline and is now into a 30-day grace period, but the writing is on the wall.
– China makes all crypt-related transactions illegal. Bitcoin slides 7.5% today, these things can weigh on sentiment with Tech companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
– Congress in the hot seat. House Democrats meet this week. Possible infrastructure vote next week. Deadlines approaching. Keep an ear to the ground.
– New Home Sales due at 9:00 am CT
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4438, up 54.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,303.50, up 140.00
– Big levels of resistance achieved yesterday. S&P rare major four-star was taken out early and buy programs kicked in. Surrendering that level this morning. Edits below.
– Resistance aligning with the 50-day moving average in the S&P and momentum indicator and yesterday’s breakout pocket comes in at 4425-4431; bulls need to regain.
– Pivot and point of balance at 4416.50; below here bears have an edge on the session
– NQ failed directly at major three-star resistance yesterday at 15,326-15,360.
– Key support at 15,163-15,182; below here bears have an edge on the session.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 4425-4431***, 4438***, 4445.50**, 4451.50-4455***
Pivot: 4416.50
Support: 4401-4406.50**, 4393.50***, 4384**, 4371.75-4347.35****, 4355.50-4356.50**, 4338.50-4343.25***, 4323.25**, 4305.25**, 4293.75***
NQ (December)
Resistance: 15,326-15,360***, 15,500-15,550***
Pivot: 15,276
Support: 15,163-15,182**, 15,141**, 15,077-15,090**, 15,014****, 14,920-14,935**, 14,807-14,841***, 14,700**
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 73.30, up 1.07
– We are Bullish in Bias but there are risk-off undertones today.
– China is fighting pollution by cutting power to factories. Deflationary for inputs and inflationary for outputs.
– Price action in Crude Oil settled right at our major three-star resistance in a bullish move yesterday but did not break through.
– Rising momentum indicator at 73.05 this morning, brings point of balance
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 73.23-73.58***, 74.56-75.00***, 76.98***
Pivot: 73.05
Support: 72.45-72.65**, 72.03***, 71.40-71.60**, 70.97-71.07**, 70.39-70.49***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1751.4, down 40.7
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.679, down 0.228
– We have turned near-term Bearish in Bias and expect a flush lower led by Silver.
– U.S. Dollar strengthening and yields rising for a deluge of reasons spearheaded by Congress and the debt ceiling.
– Big technical failure in both Gold and Silver Wednesday post-FOMC
– Gold closed below major three-star support at 1753-1756.4 yesterday and saw added selling into electronic close, Silver followed.
– A flush will be healthy and get the pain in the precious metals over with.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1753-1756.4***, 1768-1770**, 1777**, 1782.8-1784***, 1808.9-1810***
Pivot:
Support: 1742.3-1745.5**, 1731.7-1737.4***, 1718.5**, 1673.3-1698.5****
Silver (Dec)
Resistance: 22.70**, 22.93**, 23.35***, 23.88-23.95***, 24.28-24.40***
Pivot: 22.58
Support: 22.02-22.35***, 20.99-21.25****
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20210924