Blue Line – Grain Express August 17th, 2021
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| Corn (December)Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 667,200 metric tons, towards the low end of estimates. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is underway, the released their results for South Dakota and Ohio, last night (which we emailed out). They have the Ohio corn yield at 185.06 and South Dakota at 151.45. This compares to the USDA estimates of 193 and 133, respectively. Crop Progress showed Good/Excellent ratings at 62%, 2% lower than last week. There is speculation that the improvement in Illinois last week was overstated and revised back this week (+11% in the previous report, down 5% in yesterday’s report). The Bulls have had reason to rally over the last week, the inability to do so, with conviction, should be a caution flag. |
Technicals: Corn futures have traded on both sides of unchanged in the overnight/early morning session, continue to tread near our pivot pocket, 568 ¼-573 ½. The Bulls have a technical advantage so long as they can defend this pocket. A break and close below this pocket could drop us back to trendline support and the 100-day moving average, 548-551 ½. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 588 ½-594 ¼***, 611 ¼** Pivot: 569 ¼-573 ½ Support: 548-551 ½***, 527 ½-532 ¼**, 507-514 ¼**** Soybeans (November) Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 114,253 metric tons, within the range of estimates. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is underway, the released their results for South Dakota and Ohio, last night (which we emailed out). They have the Ohio soybean pod count 1,195, above the three-year average, 1,056. The South Dakota soybean pod count is 996.9, below the three-year average, 1,036.1. Crop Progress showed Good/Excellent ratings at 57%, 3% lower than last week. |
Technicals: The market rallied towards our 4-star resistance pocket yesterday and again in the overnight session but has so far failed to attract new buyers at those levels. A breakout above that pocket could trigger short covering and be the catalyst to encourage momentum buyers back into the market. If you’re on the bearish side, this pocket represents a good risk/reward trade to the sell-side. There’s not much support until you get down to 1345 ¼-1352 ¼. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1379 ½-1387 ½**** Pivot: 1345 ¼-1352 ¼ Support: 1325 ¾-1333***, 1300 ½-1306 ¾***, 1259 ¾-1267** |
| Wheat (December) Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at605,793 metric tons, towards the top end of estimates and the second highest print of the year. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed Spring Wheat Good/Excellent ratings unchanged at 11%. Harvest is 58% complete. |
Technicals (Chicago Wheat): Chicago wheat futures are retreating from their recent highs, which could potentially feed on itself and spark some additional long liquidation. If the Bulls fail to reclaim ground above 770 ½, we could see the selling take us back to last week’s breakout point, 749 ¾-751 ¾. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 786 ½* 799-801 ½** Pivot: 770 ½** Support: 749 ¾-751 ¾***, 723 ½-725*** |
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