Are US Financials Worth Considering as US Policy Normalisation Hopes Return?
The US retail sales data was a miss yesterday. However, the miss was within the consensus view, and the USD reaction told us that hopes of an earlier Fed bond taper are still on the cards. The dollar index made a one-way move to overhead resistance at 93.00 and US 10 year yields ticked modestly higher. So, with a US interest rate rise, financials like JP Morgan could be set for gains. Over the last 15 years, JP Morgan has risen 73.33% of the time between August 22 and December 31 with an average return of +8.51%. The largest gain was in 2016 with a 33.53% gain. The largest loss was in 2008 with a -16.30% loss.
Major Trade Risks: Any weak US economic data, like a weak September US jobs report could result in slower US policy normalisation and that would not typically benefit financials like JP Morgan.